Another early harvest. Climate change?
California has had so many “early harvests” lately that we’re going to have to redefine what the word “early” means. Maybe “early” is the new “normal.”
It seems like the last two years, 2013-2014, were mind-blowingly early. The 2013 vintage was “Early [with] exceptional quality vintage throughout the state,” said the Wine Institute.
Then, in 2014, Wine Spectator said that, in 2014, “Everything was ready to go in early- to mid-August, even Cabernet Sauvignon, which usually ripens much later.”
And now, here comes 2015, “which is expected to arrive earlier than usual,” according to the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat.
That’s what I also heard last week, while walking through Andy Beckstoffer’s Georges III vineyard in Rutherford, where veraison had already started. Of course, all this comes amidst persistent reports of above-average temperatures in California. Just yesterday, it was reported that June was “the warmest ever for California,” as it also was for Nevada, Oregon and Washington. That simply extended this year’s trend: The entire West Coast, plus Nevada, just went through its warmest-ever January-June.
And that was for the second year in a row! Last year, 2014, also was the warmest ever recorded up to then in California, Arizona, southern Nevada and parts of southern and coastal Oregon, according to NOAA.
You’d think statistics like these would be enough to convince the most die-hard climate-change denier, but there’s just enough anomalistic weather to keep them hoping against hope that their delusions are real. May, 2015, for example, was unusually wet and cool in California (actually, it helpfully slowed down the ripening)—but, even at that, May “was the first cooler-than-average month in well over a year for the state.” So when a climate-change denier, like Sen. Ted Cruz, declares that, “I believe in following evidence and data. On the global warming alarmists, anyone who actually points to the evidence that disproves their apocalyptical claims, they don’t engage in reasoned debate,” he would seem to be on increasingly shaky intellectual footing, and not abiding by his own rules for reasoned debate.
However, I’m not here to indulge in pretentious political-scientific jiggery-pokery (thank you, Justice Scalia!), merely to chat about our freaky weather. And now, here comes El Nino! We’ve heard rumors of its approach for years now—rumors that turned out not to be true. But for the last two weeks or so, the media increasingly has been rife with reports, such as this one, of “strong El Nino rainfall” this coming winter. Just yesterday, AccuWeather reported that it “could be one of the strongest in 50 years,” with all that that implies, especially powerful rains.
In big El Nino years, California is drenched, wih L.A. sometimes having even more rain than NoCal. I vividly recall the January, 1995 storms, which brought “disastrous rainstorms throughout California,” said the USGS; poor Guerneville in particular, in the Russian River Valley, was hit hard, with people having to be airlifted off their roofs. We want El Nino’s rain, but we certainly don’t want the natural catastrophes. The problem is, usually the two can’t be separated. Fortunately, a lot of the river dwellers in Guerneville, bless them, put their houses up on stilts after 1995.
A category 3 hurricane is currently heading up the western coast of Mexico and is expected to hold together as it makes way across Southern California next Monday. If this happens, will this be the new “normal”?
Los Angeles Times headline dated May 27, 2015:
“El Niño’s Latest Trick: Another Calmer [Eastern U.S.] Hurricane Season”
Link: http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-hurricane-season-20150527-story.html
Posted by AccuWeather some “43 minutes ago”:
“Dolores Becomes a Major Hurricane Offshore of Mexico”
Link: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dolores-to-become-a-major-hurr-1/50188829
Excerpt:
“Dolores intensified into a major hurricane off the west coast of Mexico early Wednesday morning. While western Mexico and southern Baja California will escape the worst of the storm, residents and visitors cannot let their guard down.
“Fueled by the warm waters west of Mexico, Dolores strengthened into a hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Monday.
“Wind and rain will increase as Dolores strengthens, but its fury will bypass Mexico as Dolores maintains a westward track into the open waters of the eastern Pacific.”
Pinot Noir in Freestone is at 10% veraison, and in Graton it is 50%. This indicates harvesting these vineyards in the range of September 1 to 15. And on Diamond Mountain, there is versaison in Cabernet on only the most exposed slopes. In our own Cab vineyard there is none, so we are at least 60 days from harvest; i.e. the harvest here does not seem to be on track to be particularly early. However, regions where bloom and set occurred in the warm weather of March and April may be on a much earlier track than those slowed down by the cool weather in May. Maybe the bigger story climate wise is the monsoonal flow setting up so early in the season. Possible rain this week-end in Central CA and over 100% more than normal rain this last month around Mammoth. Backpackers returning from Tuolumne Meadows area reported rain on all but 3 days over the last two weeks. Sure seems like an El Nino pattern is setting up, so an early harvest would be welcome: http://www.weatherwest.com
Pinot Noir in Freestone is at 10% veraison, and in Graton it is 50%. This indicates harvesting these vineyards in the range of September 1 to 15. And on Diamond Mountain, there is versaison in Cabernet on only the most exposed slopes. In our own Cab vineyard there is none, so we are at least 60 days from harvest; i.e. the harvest here does not seem to be on track to be particularly early. However, regions where bloom and set occurred in the warm weather of March and April may be on a much earlier track than those slowed down by the cool weather in May. Maybe the bigger story climate wise is the monsoonal flow setting up so early in the season. Possible rain this week-end in Central CA and over 100% more than normal rain this last month around Mammoth. Backpackers returning from Tuolumne Meadows area reported rain on all but 3 days over the last two weeks. Sure seems like an El Nino pattern is setting up, so an early harvest would be welcome: http://www.weatherwest.com
In the last 20 + years the varietal clones have changed in some cases, the rootstocks have changed (many cycle early ripening and shallow rooting), and also a lot of cultural training systems have changed towards more open systems ( which ripen fruit earlier). I always thought taking growing systems based from work in the Finger Lakes area and transplanting it too California (Australia) may not work out the best. As well, many winemaking methods from California transplanted to the East are not always the best either , at least in my thinking. There are many variables.
My daughter, our Viticulturalist, remarked how California and Michigan seem to be in different hemispheres. We confront climate change in the Leelanau Peninsula from a different perspective. How many record cold, vine-killing winters do we endure before we conclude climate change is occurring from the opposite perspective? We also put great hopes in El Niño as it generally translates into a mild winter in Michigan
So, in 2010 and 2011 when change of seasons came early and significant fruit was left in the fields, where were your gratuitous swipes at climate “deniers”? Climate must be measured over very long periods to be proved, not 4 or 5 years. “Proofs” are a fundamental segment of the scientific method which has accounted for 400 years of human progress. Yet we are now asked to abandon hypothesis-theorum-proof in favor of “consensus” to satisfy the political desires of those who lust for oppressive taxes and unilateral political power. Do you shame everyone who asks relevant questions because the answer you want can’t be supported? Maybe direct censorship rather than debate would be more pleasing to you?
From The Economist magazine:
“Why Global Warming Does Not Necessarily Result in Warmer Winters”
Link: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-2
Excerpt on the need to define one’s terms:
“. . . the climate and the weather are not the same: they are related, but weather patterns develop and change over hours, days and weeks; the climate changes over years and decades.”
From the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency:
“Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions”
Link: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basics/facts.html