I am, as many of you know, something of a student of the history of wine, and of California wine in particular. I’ve always had a hankering for history–any era, any country–although I do have my favorites: World War II is one (I have almost as many books on that as I do on wine), and I also enjoy the history of science, especially of modern physics. But my wine education began with a study of California’s wine history, and it’s still going on. That’s the thing about history: it keeps on happening.

I’m mindful of this, because I’ve been thinking about how Francis Ford Coppola is engaged in restoring the historic Inglenook name, which really had been dreadfully mauled over the years, since it passed from the hands of the great John Daniel, Jr. to a series of corporate owners, including United Vintners, Heublein, Constellation and The Wine Group. No disrespect to any of those fine companies, but that’s a pretty sad track record for a winery that had been as great as Inglenook, which was founded in 1879 and therefore has a legacy as important as any winery in California.

When I first started learning about wine, Inglenook already was in its dog days. It was mainly known for the Inglenook Navalle bottling, which hardly was great wine. Those of us who knew history appreciated and respected Inglenook for what it had been, not what it was. We hoped that, someday, the glory that was Inglenook would be restored. But that seemed impossible. Even after Francis Ford Coppola successfully repatched together the original Inglenook estate vineyard, in Rutherford, with a series of purchases, the name “Inglenook” seemed deader than a doorknob. Coppola named his brand Rubicon, not Inglenook, because he didn’t own the rights.

That’s now changed, and is why it was so exciting to hear that Coppola had bought back the Inglenook name (from The Wine Group) and plans on resurrecting it for the wines that had been Rubicon Estate.

Inglenook was one of the Big Four that kept the reputation of Napa Valley for Cabernet Sauvignon going, post-Prohibition. The others were Louis M. Martini (now owned by Gallo), Beaulieu (Diageo) and Charles Krug, which thankfully remains in the hands of the Peter Mondavi, Sr. family. Each of these wineries is doing fine, although concerning Martini, I think the jury’s still out on precisely where the Gallos aim to take it. Beaulieu has been left marvelously intact by Diageo, who understands the truth of the old adage, If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it, and Charles Krug remains an outstanding exemplar of how good Napa wine can be at relatively affordable prices. Still, I think it’s fair to say that none of those three wineries has aspired to be the very best in Napa Valley.

Which leaves Rubicon/Inglenook. Can Coppola push it back to the top? I, personally, have always thought a great deal of Rubicon, the Bordeaux blend that was the Rubicon winery’s flagship wine. The old estate vineyard, west of Highway 29 on the Rutherford Bench, is one of the glories of Napa Valley, just beautifully situated. I’ve always given very high scores to Rubicon (culminating in 95 points for the 2008, which I reviewed last October), and I’ve also always enjoyed the Cask Cabernet Sauvignon, which is consciously modeled after Daniels’ Cabs, made during Inglenook’s glory days in the 1930s, ‘40s and ‘50s. That Cask Cabernet, for my money, is pretty much right up there with Rubicon, although it’s a different kind of wine, more closed in youth and, overall, more elegant. But it’s also $100 less.

When I think back over Napa Valley’s amazing history, I’m grateful to those who came later, but advanced the cause. Robert Mondavi clearly stands out, head and shoulders above anyone else in the second half of the twentieth century, with the possible exception of André Tchelistcheff. But we don’t have to choose between them. I also give great credit to Bill Harlan. He came along at a point when pretty much everybody thought Napa Cabernet was as good as it can get, and then he made it better. Without Bill, I wonder if there would be Screaming Eagle, Araujo, Staglin, Hundred Acre, Colgin and all the rest of what we nowadays consider “cult wineries.” Bill Harlan showed that Napa could reinvent itself, even when nobody thought it needed reinventing.

Sodden thought: I wonder what Napa’s next reinvention will be, and who will lead it?

What will happen when the Chinese discover Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon?

For the answer, we look to Bordeaux. China is now Bordeaux’s largest export market, a position long held by Britain. As a result, prices for Lafite, Latour and company, already high, have soared, placing those wines effectively beyond the reach of all but the world’s one percenters, including those in China. Chinese people are buying up Bordeaux chateaux, with at least six now so owned. It’s impossible to forecast an end to China’s Boreaux-mania. Indeed, there’s no reason at all why it should stop. It’s just getting started.

The laws of supply and demand being what they are, it’s likely that prices of the top Bordeaux will continue to rise. They’ve been going up for years, anyhow, making this one of the longest sustained periods of steady increases in Bordeaux’s long history, to judge by Eddie Penning Rowsell’s record-keeping in The Wines of Bordeaux.

But even a wealthy Chinese collector must blanch to some of these prices. What happens when top tier Bordeaux starts to be too expensive in Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai? People look to second tier Bordeaux. That’s exactly what we see happening: Decanter just reported that, despite some softening in pricing for Lafite and other First Growths on the auction market, prices for “blue chip second wines” are “robust,” a phenomenon that “is almost certainly due to the Chinese market.” The Chinese, it seems, will pay more for a wine like Carruades de Lafite (from Chateau Lafite Rothschild) or Chateau Margaux’s Pavillon Rouge than will an American or European.

So we already see incredibly high pricing pinching the prices of First Growths in China, leading to increased demand for “lesser” but still prestigious Bordeaux. What does it mean for Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon?

Pretty obvious. After Bordeaux, what’s the most famous region in the world for Bordeaux-style wines? You got it. Chinese interest in Napa Valley is on the rise. A delegation of Chinese wine industry types recently visited the valley, and of course Yao Ming is going to further raise Napa’s visibility in his homeland when he starts selling his own wine there.

You can see where this is heading. it can be only a matter of time before the top ranked Napa Cabernets hit China bigtime. (I suspect the Chinese will have a harder time with Meritage-style wines with proprietary names.) The Napa Valley Vintners, sensing opportunities, last year sent a major league delegation to the PRC; it included Amuse Bouche, Rubicon, Dalla Valle, Wilver Oak, Moone-Tsai and Heitz. Janet Viader, who also was part of the mission, told the Napa Register on her return, “I was very inspired to pursue opening the Chinese market for us.”

Truer words never were spoken.

I ran into an old friend yesterday, a professional who works in the Rock Ridge area of North Oakland. He’s a wine guy with a particular penchant for Brunello. He never had much liking for California wine, including Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon. Too rich, too soft, too sweet–you know the routine. I always told him that, while he was waiting for those pesky Brunellos to mature, he could be drinking Cabernet. But no, he just didn’t care for it.

“But I recently had a Napa Cabernet for dinner with some friends,” he told me yesterday, “and, man, was it good! So I’m thinking maybe my palate is changing, away from Brunello toward Cabernet.”

This matter of “changing palates” has always fascinated me. There’s no reason, when you think about it, why somebody’s palate shouldn’t change over a period of years. Our preferences and tastes evolve; our bodies themselves undergo certain effects of aging; and a host of other, intangible factors can contribute to the phenomenon of a changing palate. Any and all of these could have resulted in my friend’s new appreciation of Cabernet.

However, it could also be simply that Napa Valley Cabernet has gotten so good, you’d practically have to be a misanthrope not to like it. I think, in the case of my friend, his aversion to Cabernet went something like this: He decided many years ago that he didn’t care for it. Maybe that was because he hadn’t had very good Cabernet. Maybe his infatuation with Brunello–a wine that’s notoriously tannic in youth, requiring many years of age–made him sensitive to Cab’s softness, which in turn made him insensitive to its charms.

I think some people go through phases in their wine appreciation. I’ve always been mildly surprised at how people tell me they like “x” or “y”, but they hate “z,” even when all three wines are well made and typical of their type. Myself, I can appreciate any wine, as long as it’s well made. I’m very catholic [with a small “c”] in that regard. People are always asking me, “What’s your favorite wine?”, and although I really have none, I gave up trying to explain that years ago, and nowadays I simply say “sparkling wine or Champagne” and leave it at that. But the reason I can’t have a favorite wine is because when so many different wines are so excellent, it’s a form of bias to reject some of them. So I don’t.

Back to my friend. My assumption is that, after years of persuading himself he didn’t like Napa Cabernet, he inadvertently stumbled across one recently and was stunned to discover that, yes, this is utterly, completely delicious. Sure, it may not have the stinging tannins of Brunello, but then again, that’s not what [most] Napa Cabernets are about. It’s nothing against Brunello to admit how luscious a great Napa Cabernet can be. It’s simply a matter of broadening your palate, or perspective, to include other forms of goodness.

I wish my friend had remembered the particular Cabernet that changed his mind. Alas, he didn’t. I hate when that happens–when people tell me about a certain wine they had (and that I may have reviewed), but can’t recall its name. It could have been any one of dozens: there are really so many great wineries in Napa Valley focusing on Cabernet/Meritage wines that it’s impossible to keep track of them. Some of the greatest Cabernets I’ve reviewed in the last few months have come from Venge, Araujo, JCB (yes, our friend, Jean-Charles Boisset, whose No. 1 Cabernet is quite an achievement, although it isn’t cheap: $150), Stag’s Leap Cask 23, Caymus Special Selection [particularly awesome considering the high production level], Shafer Hillside Select [what else is new?], Macauley 2007 [a new name to me. I looked it up and wasn't surprised. The winemaker is Kirk Venge. The grapes come from To Kalon and from the Star Vineyard, planted by David Abreu.]. Other Cabernets that knocked me out lately were Moone-Tsai’s “Cor Leonis,” Vineyard 7&8’s Estate (so seriously overlooked, this winery is), and a Sequoia Grove ‘07 “Rutherford Bench Reserve” that proves this veteran winery is still in front of the pack.

Any wine lover with an open mind cannot fail to appreciate the sheer world-class-ness of wines like these. If someone does, they’re just being ideological about it, like I think my friend was, for all those years. Fortunately, some people are wise, or blessed, enough to eventually see through their own ideologies and discard them, after which the scales fall from their eyes, enabling them to appreciate a whole new dimension of wines. My friend now is a certified Napa-centric. Welcome to the club!

It’s easy to make a splash in the wine biz in California if you have a few hundred million in spare change to invest in a fabulous winery designed by a famous architect, then hire a famous consulting winemaker, put out a $150 Cabernet that goes on to be the top lot at the Napa Valley Auction or Premier Napa Valley, and then hire a top of the line P.R. firm to spread the word about your fabulosity.

It’s hard to make a splash when your “winery” is a dumpy little wooden barn on “the wrong side of the hill”, you have no budget for P.R. or much of anything else, and you don’t even make Cabernet. But it can be done, and for proof you need look no further than Joseph Swan Vineyards.

I’ve been a Swan fan forever. I began tasting their wines (not for review, for sheer enjoyment) in the 1980s. I still remember a dinner at Chez Panisse at which Swan’s winemaker (and Joe Swan’s son-in-law), Rod Berglund, brought down a bunch of old wines for a tasting, for which Alice Waters prepared a magnificent meal (lamb, if I recall correctly). Those wines had aged perfectly even though some of them were 20 years old. (I covered the winery extensively in my first book, A Wine Journey along the Russian River.)

I reviewed a bunch of their latest releases yesterday and was again reminded just how good and authentic Swan wines are. Few wineries in California have such a good track record across so many varieties. I’ve given consistent high scores to Swan Pinot Noir, Zinfandel, Syrah, Viognier, Chardonnay and even to a Tannat I loved last year. Can you name another winery that performs so well in so many kinds of wine? Off the top of my head, I can’t. The reason, I think, is because Swan is very careful to source their grapes only from the coolest parts of the Russian River Valley, and the best vineyards. It’s also because Rod is a hell of a winemaker. His Pinot Noirs are probably his best wines; I gave his the 2007 Trenton Estate 97 points, and at $52 it’s less than a lot of Pinots that aren’t even as good. You could call it Burgundian because it has such great acidity and a mushroomy thing going on that’s obviously pure terroir, but I think I’m going to stop referencing wines as “Burgundian” because, after all, the correct word to use is “Russian River Valley-an” or “Trentonian” or some other word that’s about our terroir, not theirs.

So kudos to Joseph Swan Vineyards and Rod Berglund. They’re still going strong after all these years.

* * *

I’m headed up to Napa later this morning to hang with Jayson Woodbridge, the owner/winemaker at Hundred Acre, Layer Cake and Cherry Pie. I want to see how his vintage is coming along (and to see him, too. Fascinating guy). We chatted briefly on the phone the other day and he was excited. Now, vintners are always “excited” about the latest vintage, or so they claim when talking with ink-stained wretches like me. I think they’d find something positive to say if an asteroid hit Napa Valley right in the middle of harvest. “The Asteroid Vintage of the Century!” But I agree with Jayson’s take. The rainfall of the first and second weeks of October was a drag and everybody was scared witless by as much as 4 inches that drenched Sonoma and Napa. But they’re dancing in the cellars over the weather that followed: two weeks of absolutely gorgeous, drop dead beautiful weather, dry, sunny and warm. No big heat at all, just mild, breezy conditions that will dry out the ground and the leaves and grapes still on the vine. I think this could be a tough vintage for the coolest coastal locations (Sonoma Coast Chardonnay, for example), where growers could experience mold and unripeness, in addition to severely short crops. But the star of the vintage might just well be Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon and Meritages, although the best will be produced in miniscule quantities because of this low-yielding year.

I’ve reviewed more $100 and up Cabs and Bordeaux blends in the last several months than ever, by far. One might have thought that the quantity of expensive California wines would be going down because of the recession, which as we all know has forced Americans to seek out more affordable wines. That’s the conventional wisdom, so I’m not really sure how to account for this plethora of pricy bottles, except that, maybe, the proprietors know something I don’t.

Some of these wines are familiar; they’ve been expensive forever and will remain so. Others that made this list are new to me, either as brands, or this is the first time I’ve seen them break the $100 barrier. By the way, I’m sure there are far more $100-plus Cabs I reviewed this year than just the ones on this list. I got tired searching through the database after I reached the Ridge. And remember, this is just $100 and over. There are dozens more that are $60, $75 and $90, which is still pretty expensive in my book.

I’m not saying these aren’t good wines, or that they’re not worth the price. I’m simply impressed by how many California (and mainly Napa Valley) wineries are pricing so high these days. It used to be a sound principle of marketing, back in the good old pre-recession days, that if you priced your Cab too low, people would think it wasn’t very good. You’d be surprised how many Cabs out there increased their prices for this simple reason, and then saw their sales increase, because a lot of newly rich people thought expensive=good, and so more expensive=better. Is that why so many of these wines are $100 and up? Or is it because the proprietors, many of whom are in greater touch with Wall Street than I am, sense that change is coming–that people are loosening up the purse strings and willing to spend more, if only for an occasional special wine?

I don’t know, but here’s the list. It’s almost like a Bordeaux classified growth menu. I also have no idea if people actually are buying these wines, or if the owners are simply hoping they will. It’s just fascinating to me to see this insight into the owner mentality these days.

Venge 2008 Family Reserve Cab $125
Araujo 2007 Eisele $275
Stonestreet 2007 Christopher’s $100
Vineyard 7&8 2008 Estate Cabernet, $125
Hall 2007 Exzellenz $165
Hall 2008 Exzellenz $165
Hall 2007 Segassia Vineyard Cab $145
Hall 2008 Segassia Vineyard Cab $150
Moone-Tsai 2008 Cor Leonis $175
Flora Springs 2008 Hillside Reserve Cab $100
Salvestrin 2007 3D Cab, $125
Hestan 2007 Cab $100
D.R. Stephens 2008 Moose Valley Vineyard Cab $125 and 2008 Walther River Block Cab $105
Far Niente 2008 Cab $120
Maybach 2008 Weitz Vineyard “Materium” Cab $125
ZD 2008 Reserve Cab $125
B Cellars 2008 Beckstoffer To Kalon Cab $125
Staglin 2008 Cab $185 and 2007 INEO $250
Jarvis 2005 Reserve Cab $195
Jarvis 2007 Lake William Cab $115
Tom Eddy 2004 Dr. Crane Cab $115
Bennett Lane 2008 Lynch Family Vineyard Cab $125
Von Strasser 2008 Reserve $125
Verite 2006 La Joie $300 and Le Desir $300 and La Muse $260
Merryvale 2008 Profile $165
Parallel 2008 Estate Cab $125
Charles Krug 2008 “Celebrating 150 Years” Cab $150 and X Clones Cab $100
Rubicon 2008 $175
Knights Bridge 2008 Beckstoffer Dr. Crane Cab $135 and 2008 Beckstoffer To Kalon Vineyard Cab $135
David Arthur 2008 Elevation 1147 Cab $150
Promise 2006 Cab $225
Carter 2008 Beckstoffer To Kalon $125
Janzen 2008 Missouri Hopper Vineyard Cab $100 and 2008 Cloudy’s Vineyard Cab $100
Tuck Beckstoffer 2007 Mockingbird Green Label Cab $170
Joseph Phelps 2008 Backus Vineyard Cab $250 and 2008 Insignia $200
Pride Mountain 2007 Reserve Cab $125 and 2008 Vintner Select Cab $130
Louis M. Martini 2008 Lot 1 Cab $120
Meander 2008 Morisoli Vineyard Cab $120
Luna 2006 North Fork Cab $110
Diamond Creek 2008 Gravelly Meadow, Volcanic Hill and Red Rock Terrace, all $175
Baldacci 2007 Brenda’s Vineyard Cab $105
Veedercrest 2006 Cab $125
Veedercrest 2007 Cab $200
Arrowood 2007 Reserve Speciale Cab $110
Kapcsandy 2008 Grand Vin Cab $325 and 2008 State Lane Vineyard $165
Nickel & Nickel 2008 Martin Stelling Vineyard Cab $140
M by Michael Mondavi 2007 Cab $200
Bialla 2009 Vita Cab $125
Robert Mondavi 2008 Reserve Cab $135
Carter 2008 Coliseum Block Cab $125
Beringer 2008 Private Reserve Cab $115
Duckhorn 2007 The Discussion $115
Cardinale 2007 $300
Dominus 2008 $149
White Cottage 2008 Celestia Estate $125
Continuum 2008 $150
Viader 2008 $100
Alpha Omega 2008 Era $195
Ridge 2008 Monte Bello $145

I was glad to see, via Terry Hall, the Napa Valley Vintners issue this clarification of the true state of climate change in Napa Valley.

They had to, because there’s been some sensationalistic reporting on that topic, in publications that should know better, including Reuters, which said “the results of climate change could [push Napa] beyond the acceptable band of temperatures required for…high quality varieties,” and The Huffington Post, according to which “By 2040 Northern California might have 50% less land suitable for growing premium wine grapes due to climate change.”

They were reporting on a short abstract in an online journal, Environmental Research Letters, whose bullet point is “We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions.” Others who jumped on this and wrote scary predictions about Napa’s future included Stanford University, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat, and the Los Angeles Times.

Maybe it’s asking too much for publications to put scientific studies into context. Journalists have neither the time nor the skills to do so. Newspapers that used to have science reporters have laid them off (with the commendable exception of the San Francisco Chronicle’s David Perlman). It’s much easier to run an attention-grabbing headline (“Warmer temperatures threaten California vineyards” — the L.A. Times) then to do actual research.

That’s why Terry Hall’s press release from yesterday (read it, please; it’s not very long) is so welcome. Terry knows, as do I and many others, that Napa Valley is not getting hotter. Anyone who lives here knows that we’re now in the seventh year of a cooling cycle, which has been notably accentuated the last three vintages. I’ve written about this endlessly in this blog: how truly hotter temperatures far inland are sucking more, not less, chilly Pacific air over the coast, which includes Napa Valley. (Terry specifically said Napa “is not considered a coastal region,” but I would dispute that. Historically, it has been considered coastal, “coastal” being synonymous with fog, which Napa Valley rightly celebrates.)

Terry called Napa “the poster child for the potential results of climate change” and he’s exactly right. Patiently, he explains the results of the Napa Valley Vintners’ own five-year study. He points out that “the results [of climate change] will not necessarily be a blanket effect, as climate change is not a ‘one size fits all’ phenomenon.” So true. Would that all reporting would be so diligent about the facts.

The NVV Study did find a little bit of local warming “over recent decades,” namely an increase of 1-2 degrees F., but only in overnight temperatures between January and August. That may be true, but it may not be. Survey findings are only as accurate as the data that were inputted, and, as we all know from reading, say, The Winemaker’s Dance, temperature and climate studies are notoriously inaccurate, especially when they go back for decades, when readings were even more unreliable than they are now.

So next time you read some panicky article on how Napa will be too hot for anything except Algerian varieties, don’t worry. Just pop open a bottle of Cabernet and read something else.