Vote NO on the recall!
I still think Gov. Newsom is going to beat this Republican recall. But the polls are a lot closer than they were a few months ago, when I predicted he’d win by double digits.
Now, I suspect his margin will be in the single digits. Still a win, but not a very big one.
It’s obvious to me what’s happening. Newsom inherited a series of gruesome issues. The wildfires are clearly not his fault, although Republicans are blaming him for not clearing the forests.
The housing situation is clearly not his fault, although Republicans are making it sound like Newsom is refusing to build badly-needed housing.
COVID-19 is clearly not his fault. He has tackled the pandemic with as much grace and intelligence as anyone could expect. But Republicans are suggesting he personally imported the virus from that Wuhan lab and spread it around California.
It’s only fair, I suppose, to blame The Guy at the Top when things go badly. But it’s not fair. He’s done the best he could, under the toughest circumstances imaginable. His critics, especially those Trump Republicans, love to play Monday morning quarterback. But what would they have done, had they been in power? They would have ended mask mandates and school shutdowns, thus putting hundreds of thousands more Californians at risk of serious disease or death. They would have cut taxes on billionaires, and ended Newsom’s efforts to combat global warming. They would have done whatever they can to make California unfriendly to LGBTQ people. They would have brought the evangelical churches into the halls of government, with all the attendant horrors. Above all, even if a Republican were to replace Newsom (which I do not for a moment believe), that new Governor would be dead on arrival, politically speaking: facing a Democratic legislature, he would get nothing done, except to give nasty speeches that would tear Californians apart, pitting inland rural districts against the more populous coastal cities and suburbs. The last thing California needs is more division.
The Governor is handling the stress well. He’s out there every day, doing his job, whether it’s at a hospital or in a forest or school. Looking poised and confident, he’s leading our complicated State as effectively as any modern Governor I’ve seen, including Jerry Brown. I’m sure that, inwardly, this cannot be a happy time for Gavin; we all want to be loved, politicians more than anyone, and it must hurt him to realize that a good chunk of Californians want to kick him out.
But the Governor ought to take comfort in these two facts: 1) most of the recall proponents are Trump Republicans who do not have the interests of California, or America, at heart, and 2) even those Democrats and Independents who may be thinking of kicking him out are going to change their minds at the last minute. As they look over the Republican field of candidates, including Caitlyn Jenner, they see a clown car—although that’s not fair to actual clowns, who as a rule are not dangerous lunatics. I strongly believe even those inclined to fire the Governor will reconsider, when they consider the alternative.
