Comments on: What’s a Classified Growth to do?

By: Greg

Greg — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 20:44:47 +0000

Peter, your VEI index is quite fascinating. If I read it correctly, then 2007 and 2008 are still above average compared to a typical vintage in the last 30 years. So should I conclude that the bad recent vintages are at least better than those of the 90′s and 80′s?

The interesting thing is I’ve seen a handful of ’08s with alcohol around 14% or so. I take that to mean heat hit late in the season and spiked sugars pre-harvest. So should we expect high alcohol without especially good phenolic development?

By: David Boyer

David Boyer — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:43:34 +0000

Peter, I admire your work and thank you for your response – it is indeed important.

By: Peter O'Connor

Peter O'Connor — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 18:12:38 +0000

Mr. Boyer,
Thank you for your comment.
You’re absolutely right when you say (statistical) indicators/indexes do not tell the whole story. They tell most of the story, though. And work quite well for cold regions like Bordeaux and Bourgogne. If you pay attention to the 2002 index number you will see that it reflected the nuances you mentioned.
Robust quantitative indexes/indicators are, however, invaluable tools to support the decision making process; for example, employing an indicator with a consistent track record of forecasting accuracy and statistical adherence to value, forecast and trade Bordeaux Futures.
Respectfully,
Peter O’Connor

By: David Boyer

David Boyer — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:07:17 +0000

Peter, I like your index but it really doesn’t tell the whole story, rather it’s an average snapshot of only a couple of factors recorded during a growing season. If spring is cool and drier than normal (like in ’02), bud break and fruit set will be delayed, possibly impairing the growth, ripening, and yield of the grapes. And even if temperatures are above normal and rainfall is below normal but there is an unusually high number of cloudy days (again as in ’02), the grapes will fail to ripen properly. Or if most of the season’s rainfall unfortunately occurs around harvest the result will probably be thin, diluted wine. As you know, all of these things (and many more issues that would take a volume to discuss) will ultimately show up in the bottle, at least in Bordeaux they will. Other regions that take a more interventionist approach to winemaking can ameliorate a lot of what Mother Nature doles out in any given year, which is a whole other can of worms.

Indeed winemakers from nearly every region try to quantify the growing season with a number and there is some general value in doing this from a tracking and historical standpoint. Napa does the same thing with their heat days, heat summation method, Winkler Scale, or whatever they’re calling it these days. The bottom line is the result of these indices do not mean the vintage was good but only that it was warmer and drier than usual, which can be misleading if not interpreted properly.

With the ’09 vintage already gathering steam in the press as perhaps being better than ’05, I am very curious to see what happens with it and if indeed it really is great or just a PR attempt to prop up the region. We’ll know in the next couple of years I guess.

By: Derek

Derek — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 14:00:38 +0000

Check this article out from BRane-cantenac…..http://www.brane-cantenac.com/blog-brane-cantenac/